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Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back Bologna to win

Thảo luận trong 'Chuyên Mục Ngoài Lề' bắt đầu bởi thanhthuy02, 4/2/20.

  1. thanhthuy02

    thanhthuy02 Member

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    Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back Bologna to win
    After a winter break, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best free soccer daily tip across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data lớn select a nicely priced weekend fourfold…


    Both lớn hit the net in Barcelona
    Espanyol vs Athletic Club
    Saturday, 12:00 GMT
    Espanyol are in desperate need of points heading into this soccer tips every day, as despite beating Villarreal 2-1 away from home last weekend, they still sit bottom of the La Liga table and four points from safety.
    Based on xG, they are unfortunate to sit in the relegation zone, ranking as the 17th best team, but their main issue this season hasn't been creating chances, it has been failing to take them.
    Espanyol have scored only 16 goals this season from chances equating to 24.8 xGF, so need to get their finishing boots on if they are lớn survive, and there were signs of that happening at Villarreal last weekend.
    Athletic Club were exceptionally unfortunate not to beat Celta Vigo last time out, as they created a host of chances in an excellent display, but had to settle for a draw (xG: BIL 4.25 - 0.83 CEL).


    Away from home the Basque side do struggle, and have won just once on the road this season, with their defensive process a cause for concern when they are away from San Mames (1.61 xGA per away game).
    They are a capable attacking team (1.38 xGF per game), so will trouble Espanyol here, and the Infogol model calculates a 51% (1.96) chance of both teams scoring here, making the hai.16 (46%) on offer a decent value play.

    No back-to-back for SPAL
    SPAL vs Bologna
    Saturday, 14:00 GMT
    SPAL picked up a hugely surprising win on Monday, and a hugely fortunate one, as they beat Atalanta despite allowing a host of chances (xG: ATA 2.14 - 1.24 SPA).
    That win propelled them off the foot of the table and lớn within a point of safety, and that is exactly where they deserve lớn be according lớn xG.
    Their process is very poor, especially defensively (1.85 xGA per game), and they are winless in five at home including a defeat to second-bottom Brescia, so people shouldn't overreact lớn their win on Monday.
    Bologna were held at home by a good Verona team last weekend, and prior lớn that had won the xG battle against both Torino (xG: TOR 0.56 - hai.08 BOL) and Fiorentina (xG: BOL 1.14 - 0.34 FIO) without picking up a win.
    They have the process of a top half team this season (1.69 xGF, 1.42 xGA per game), so are unfortunate to sit 12th, but if they keep performing at the same level, results will come for Siniša Mihajlović's side.
    Infogol thinks they will get back lớn winning ways here, calculating a 50% (2.00) chance of an away win, meaning the hai.40 (42%) available on the Exchange represents good value.
: tip

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